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Prediction for CME (2024-06-25T05:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-25T05:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31695/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is a large filament eruption. The filament extended from approximately N15W55 to S30W15 on the disk, with liftoff seen starting around 2024-06-24T21:40Z in SDO AIA 304. Dimming and post-eruptive loops are visible in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV 195 and 304.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-06-28T09:09Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-29T02:31Z (-12.07h, +13.78h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/06/25 08:00Z
Plane of Sky 1: 18:00Z; 31.5Rsun; WSE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 02:00Z; 31.5Rsun; ENE Direction
POS Difference: 8:00
POS Midpoint: 22:00Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 14:00

Numeric View/Impact Type: 3
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.47
Travel Time: ~6.47 * 14:00 = 90:31

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-06-29T02:31Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/06/27 01:40Z

Lead Time: 31.40 hour(s)
Difference: -17.37 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-06-27T01:45Z

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